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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2014 (2014), Article ID 695067, 21 pages
Research Article

Preliminary Analysis on the Global Features of the NCEP CFSv2 Seasonal Hindcasts

Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, 05508-090 SP, Brazil

Received 26 June 2013; Revised 12 October 2013; Accepted 24 October 2013; Published 19 January 2014

Academic Editor: Klaus Dethloff

Copyright © 2014 Gyrlene A. M. Silva et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


The representation of the CFSv2 ocean-atmosphere ensemble hindcasts is investigated during Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) and Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) from 1983 to 2010. The skill anomaly correlations showed that in some continents the forecasts do not have dependency with changes in the initial conditions. Also, in both seasons the model has a higher skill at the 0-month lead time with the largest spatial biases occurring over the North America, South America, and Oceania. Over the continents the largest biases in the nonlinearity of El Niño minus La Niña events are found over the eastern South Africa, part of Oceania, and central-southeastern parts of South America. During DJF the main biases are related to double-ITCZ, strengthening of SPCZ, and deepening of the Aleutian and Icelandic low pressures. The simulation of a warmer SST on the eastern of most austral oceans, the strengthening (weakening) of the Subtropical (Polar) Jet over the Southern Hemisphere, and the weakening of the zonal circulation near the Antarctic continent are also found in both seasons. Over the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific a cooler bias in SST is found during JJA. These biases are interpreted by analyses of the simulated global mean-state and their impact on the main patterns of variability.