The Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Extent from Spring to Summer and Its Linkage to the Decline of SIE in September

Table 4

Statistical analyses for the simple forecasting models from (1a); mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) from (3a) and (3b) are two indictors used to show the feature of the prediction error for Arctic sea ice in September. The critical value of -test () for (1a) is 5.36.

Type	Predicted equation (1a)	MAPE	RMSE	Corr. of observed with predicted values	-statistic values
		%	Mkm^2
Original	Predicted value (1b)	6.04	0.5017	0.880	53.21
Detrended	Predicted value (1c)	1.52	0.2949	0.847	39.35