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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2015, Article ID 374127, 13 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/374127
Research Article

Probability Modeling of Precipitation Extremes over Two River Basins in Northwest of China

1School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
2College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received 1 July 2014; Accepted 3 November 2014

Academic Editor: Francisco J. Tapiador

Copyright © 2015 Zhanling Li et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

This paper is focused on the probability modeling with a range of distribution models over two inland river basins in China, together with the estimations of return levels on various return periods. Both annual and seasonal maximum precipitations (MP) are investigated based on daily precipitation data at 13 stations from 1960 to 2010 in Heihe River and Shiyang River basins. Results show that GEV, Burr, and Weibull distributions provide the best fit to both annual and seasonal MP. Exponential and Pareto 2 distributions show the worst fit. The estimated return levels for spring MP show decreasing trends from the upper to the middle and then to the lower reaches totally speaking. Summer MP approximates to annual MP both in the quantity and in the spatial distributions. Autumn MP shows a little higher value in the estimated return levels than Spring MP, while keeping consistent with spring MP in the spatial distribution. It is also found that the estimated return levels for annual MP derived from various distributions differ by 22%, 36%, and 53% on average at 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods, respectively.