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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2015, Article ID 410198, 11 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/410198
Research Article

Scenario-Based Impact Assessment of Land Use/Cover and Climate Changes on Watershed Hydrology in Heihe River Basin of Northwest China

1State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
3School of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China

Received 9 August 2014; Accepted 8 October 2014

Academic Editor: R. B. Singh

Copyright © 2015 Feng Wu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

This study evaluated hydrological impacts of potential climate and land use changes in Heihe River Basin of Northwest China. The future climate data for the simulation with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were prepared using a dynamical downscaling method. The future land uses were simulated with the Dynamic Land Use System (DLS) model by establishing Multinomial Logistic Regression (MNL) model for six land use types. In 2006–2030, land uses in the basin will experience a significant change with a prominent increase in urban areas, a moderate increase in grassland, and a great decrease in unused land. Besides, the simulation results showed that in comparison to those during 1981–2005 the temperature and precipitation during 2006–2030 will change by +0.8°C and +10.8%, respectively. The land use change and climate change will jointly make the water yield change by +8.5%, while they will separately make the water yield change by −1.8% and +9.8%, respectively. The predicted large increase in future precipitation and the corresponding decrease in unused land will have substantial impacts on the watershed hydrology, especially on the surface runoff and streamflow. Therefore, to mitigate negative hydrological impacts and utilize positive impacts, both land use and climate changes should be considered in water resource planning for the Heihe River Basin.