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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2015, Article ID 740239, 12 pages
Research Article

Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff in the Luan River Basin

1Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China
2Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, The Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
3College of Chemistry and Materials, South-Central University for Nationalities, Wuhan 430074, China

Received 28 November 2014; Accepted 4 February 2015

Academic Editor: Hiroyuki Hashiguchi

Copyright © 2015 Sidong Zeng et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is the focus of climate change and hydrological research. This paper presents an integrated method employing the Budyko-based Fu model, hydrological modeling, and climate elasticity approaches to separate the effects of the two driving factors on surface runoff in the Luan River basin, China. The Budyko-based Fu model and the double mass curve method are used to analyze runoff changes during the period 1958~2009. Then two types of hydrological models (the distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the lumped SIMHYD model) and seven climate elasticity methods (including a nonparametric method and six Budyko-based methods) are applied to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results show that all quantification methods are effective, and the results obtained by the nine methods are generally consistent. During the study period, the effects of climate change on runoff change accounted for 28.3~46.8% while those of human activities contributed with 53.2~71.7%, indicating that both factors have significant effects on the runoff decline in the basin, and that the effects of human activities are relatively stronger than those of climate change.