Table of Contents Author Guidelines Submit a Manuscript
Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2015, Article ID 758250, 14 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/758250
Research Article

Verification of a Real Time Weather Forecasting System in Southern Italy

1ISAC-CNR, 88046 Lamezia Terme, Italy
2ISAC-CNR, 00133 Rome, Italy

Received 22 September 2014; Revised 20 January 2015; Accepted 20 January 2015

Academic Editor: Harry D. Kambezidis

Copyright © 2015 Luca Tiriolo et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

This paper shows the performance of an operational forecasting system, based on the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), at 3 km horizontal resolution over southern Italy. The model is initialized from the 12 UTC operational analysis/forecasting cycle of the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The forecast is issued for the following three days. The performance is evaluated for a whole year for the surface parameters: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. The verification has been performed against SYNOP stations over southern Italy. A dense non-GTS network over Calabria is used for precipitation. Results show that RMSE is about 2-3 K for temperature, 12–16% for relative humidity, 2.0–2.8 m/s for wind speed, and 55–75° for wind direction, the performance varying with the season and with the forecasting time. The error increases between the first and third forecast days. The verification of the rainfall forecast shows that the model underestimates the area of the precipitation. The model output statistics (MOS) is applied to all parameters but precipitation. Results show that the MOS reduces the RMSE by 0–30%, depending on the forecasting time, on the season and on the meteorological parameter.