Study on Clean Development Mechanism, Quantitative and Sustainable Mechanism
Table 1
Demand forecast of national carbon offset in non-Annex I countries during the period 2008–2012 [13].
Potential demand from industrialized countries (MtCO2e)
Potential supplies (MtCO2e)
Country or entity
Kyoto assets demand
Official target*
EU
1,293
Potential GIS
>1,500
Government (EU-15)
428
Ukraine
500–700
Private sector (EU ETS)
865
Russian Federation
200
Czech Republic
120
Other EU-10
600
Japan
300
Government
100
Private sector
200
Rest of Annex B
51
CDM & JI
1,573
Range: 1,500–1,658
Government
46
CDM
1,273
1,250–1,301
Private sector
5
JI
300
250–357
Total
Government
Private sector
*These numbers correspond to the amounts of AAUs governments intend to sell. They are much lower than the whole amount of excess AAUs, now estimated at more than 10 billion tCO2e over the first commitment period, with Russia accounting for half, Ukraine one-quarter, and Poland one-fifth.
