Study on Clean Development Mechanism, Quantitative and Sustainable Mechanism

Table 2

Demand forecast of national carbon offset in non-Annex I countries during the period 2013–2020 [13].

Country (group of)	Assumption	Potential demand (MtCO2e)
Australia	Carbon price mechanism, cap in line with target of 5°/b below 2000	348
EU-27, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway	20% below 1990, with differentiation EU ETS and effort sharing	1,635^*
Japan	Between 25% and below 1990	539
New Zealand	NZ ETS: 10% below 1990	77
North America	Western climate initiative (WCI): limited to California and Québec, with international offsets allowed in California only	94
Switzerland	20% below 1990, with ETS and other measures	2.3–12.8
Total	2,706

Notes: for detailed assumptions see Annex 8: assumptions for estimates of potential demand for offsets from non-Annex I countries.
^*Already accounts for an inflow in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) of 865 million CERs and ERUs during Phase II.