Study on Clean Development Mechanism, Quantitative and Sustainable Mechanism
Table 2
Demand forecast of national carbon offset in non-Annex I countries during the period 2013–2020 [13].
Country (group of)
Assumption
Potential demand (MtCO2e)
Australia
Carbon price mechanism, cap in line with target of 5°/b below 2000
348
EU-27, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway
20% below 1990, with differentiation EU ETS and effort sharing
1,635*
Japan
Between 25% and below 1990
539
New Zealand
NZ ETS: 10% below 1990
77
North America
Western climate initiative (WCI): limited to California and Québec, with international offsets allowed in California only
94
Switzerland
20% below 1990, with ETS and other measures
2.3–12.8
Total
2,706
Notes: for detailed assumptions see Annex 8: assumptions for estimates of potential demand for offsets from non-Annex I countries. *Already accounts for an inflow in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) of 865 million CERs and ERUs during Phase II.