Initialized Decadal Predictions by LASG/IAP Climate System Model FGOALS-s2: Evaluations of Strengths and Weaknesses

Figure 3

Hindcast qualities of the global mean near-surface air temperature (GMST). (a) Correlations between the model runs and the observational references along the forecast time for 4-year averages. The red (blue) lines denote INIT (NoINIT) runs. The dashed (solid) lines denote ensemble members (means). The dots represent that corresponding correlation coefficients reach the 5% significance level based on one-sided Student’s -test. (b) RMSE of the model runs along the forecast time for 4-year averages. Dots are used when RMSEs of the ensemble mean of the INIT runs are statistically significantly less than those of the ensemble mean of the NoINIT runs at 5% level, based on the one-sided test. (c) Time series of the GMST indices predicted by the ensemble mean of the INIT (NoINIT) runs for predictions averaged over the hindcast years 6–9 and corresponding observational reference (units: K). (d) As in (c) but for hindcast years 1–4.

(a) Cor

(b) RMSE

(c) 6–9 yr

(d) 1–4 yr