Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

Table 2

Intermodel correlation between simulated change and bias for seasonal mean precipitation and temperatures. Precipitation (PPT), , and represent precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature, respectively. Bold  font in correlation coefficient represents the case in which the intermodel correlation is significant at the 90% confidence level (absolute values above ). Each subregion or zone (from 1 to 4) represents each subarea (SW, NW, SE, and NE, resp.) defined in Figure 1.

Zone	Season	Mean change versus bias			90th percentile change versus Bias			10th percentile change versus bias
		PPT; (mm/d)	(°C)	(°C)	PPT (mm/d)	(°C)	(°C)	(°C)	(°C)
1	Spring	0.55	−0.53	0.42	0.36	−0.01	−0.36	−0.62	−0.64
	Summer	−0.30	−0.87	−0.61	−0.09	−0.84	−0.76	−0.84	−0.80
	Autumn	0.18	−0.56	−0.18	−0.23	−0.33	−0.78	−0.76	−0.47
	Winter	−0.17	−0.86	−0.82	−0.10	−0.90	−0.33	−0.44	−0.57
2	Spring	0.64	−0.68	0.43	0.79	−0.08	−0.42	−0.61	−0.64
	Summer	−0.38	−0.88	−0.76	−0.18	−0.74	−0.71	−0.78	−0.87
	Autumn	−0.26	−0.67	−0.24	−0.38	−0.25	−0.51	−0.59	−0.54
	Winter	−0.35	−0.87	−0.85	−0.48	−0.91	−0.28	−0.46	−0.60
3	Spring	0.15	−0.65	−0.41	−0.32	−0.06	−0.33	−0.57	−0.47
	Summer	−0.50	−0.35	−0.19	−0.27	−0.75	−0.79	−0.80	−0.87
	Autumn	0.19	0.13	0.27	−0.11	−0.33	−0.71	−0.67	−0.54
	Winter	−0.21	−0.85	−0.83	−0.39	−0.89	−0.30	−0.45	−0.59
4	Spring	0.55	−0.72	0.28	0.48	−0.01	−0.38	−0.59	−0.51
	Summer	−0.37	−0.87	−0.76	−0.01	−0.77	−0.70	−0.76	−0.88
	Autumn	0.17	−0.58	−0.24	−0.04	−0.26	−0.46	−0.55	−0.49
	Winter	−0.33	−0.87	−0.87	−0.46	−0.91	−0.26	−0.44	−0.60