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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2016, Article ID 1879024, 13 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/1879024
Research Article

Assessment of Meteorological Drought in Korea under Climate Change

1Forecast and Control Division, Nakdong River Flood Control Office, Busan 49300, Republic of Korea
2Columbia Water Center, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
3Department of Safety and Environment Research, Seoul Institute, Seoul 06756, Republic of Korea
4Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, TX 77843, USA
5Water Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang 10223, Republic of Korea
6Department of Civil Engineering, INHA University, Incheon 22212, Republic of Korea

Received 22 June 2016; Accepted 17 October 2016

Academic Editor: Guillermo Baigorria

Copyright © 2016 Jaewon Kwak et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Drought has become one of the most important elements for water resources planning and management in Korea. The objective of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of drought and change in the drought characteristics over time due to climate change. For the spatial characterization of drought, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) is calculated from the 45 observatories in Korea and the spatial distribution is also estimated based on the joint probability analysis using the copula method. To analyze the effect of climate change, spatial distribution of drought in the future is analyzed using the SPI time series calculated from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios and HADGEM3-RA regional climate model. The results show that the Youngsan River and the northwest of Nakdong River basins in Korea have nearly doubled drought amount compared to the present and are most vulnerable to drought in near future (2016 to 2039 years).