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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2016, Article ID 2905198, 14 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/2905198
Research Article

Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Drought Events in the Weihe River Basin, China

1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, 1 Xikang Road, Nanjing 210098, China
2Patent Examination Cooperation Center of the Patent Office, SIPO, Henan, Zhengzhou 450000, China

Received 29 May 2015; Revised 23 September 2015; Accepted 28 September 2015

Academic Editor: Maurits W. Ertsen

Copyright © 2016 Fei Yuan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB) in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from three climate models (CMs) for future streamflow projections, a probabilistic model for univariate drought assessment, and a copula-based bivariate model for joint drought frequency analysis under historical and future climates. With the observed historical climate data as the inputs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model projects an overall runoff reduction in the WRB under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. The univariate drought assessment found that although fewer hydrological drought events would occur under A1B scenario, drought duration and severity tend to increase remarkably. Moreover, the bivariate drought assessment reveals that future droughts in the same return period as the baseline droughts would become more serious. With these trends in the future, the hydrological drought situation in the WRB would be further deteriorated.