Probabilistic Dressing of a Storm Surge Prediction in the Adriatic Sea

Figure 4

Brier skill score as function of lead time for the MULTIPDF dressing method applied to three different forecasts (green continuous cum dotted line: DF, red continuous cum dotted line: EMF, and blue continuous cum dotted line: CRF) is compared to the EPS BSS (blue dash line). In (a)/(b), the BSS index is computed with respect to observations/hindcast, considering SR = zero.

(a)

(b)