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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2016, Article ID 4148710, 23 pages
Research Article

Projection in Future Drought Hazard of South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario 8.5 Using SPEI

1Department of Urban & Environmental Disaster Prevention, School of Disaster Prevention, Kangwon National University, 345 Jungang-ro, Samcheck-si, Gangwon-do, Republic of Korea
2Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Geum River Flood Control Office, No. 551, Gongju-si, Chungcheongnam-do, Republic of Korea
3Korea Environment Institute, 370 Sicheong-daero, Sejong-si, Republic of Korea

Received 19 July 2015; Revised 8 October 2015; Accepted 29 October 2015

Academic Editor: Milan Gocic

Copyright © 2016 Byung Sik Kim et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) analysis was conducted using monthly precipitation data and temperature data on a 12.5 km × 12.5 km resolution based on a Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario, and the characteristics of drought were identified by the threshold. In addition, the changes in drought severity and intensity were projected using the threshold based on the run-length concept and frequency analysis. As a result of the analysis, the probability density function of the total drought and maximum drought intensity moved the upper tail for the upcoming years, and the average drought intensity was also projected to become stronger in the future than in the present to the right side. Through this, it could be projected that the drought scale and frequency and the drought intensity will become severer over South Korea because of future climate change.