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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2016, Article ID 7082467, 10 pages
Research Article

Risk Assessment of Drought Based on IEAPP-IDM in Qujing, Yunnan Province, China

Menghua Deng,1,2,3 Junfei Chen,1,2,3 Guiyun Liu,1,2,3 and Huimin Wang1,2,3

1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2Institute of Management Science, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
3National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Received 2 October 2016; Accepted 12 December 2016

Academic Editor: Anthony R. Lupo

Copyright © 2016 Menghua Deng et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


A new model for risk assessment of drought based on projection pursuit optimized by immune evolutionary algorithm and information diffusion method (IEAPP-IDM) was proposed. Due to the fact that drought risk assessment is a complex multicriteria and multilevel problem, the IEAPP-IDM model can project the multidimensional indicators of samples into one-dimension projection scores; then, the information carried by the projection scores was diffused into drought risk levels; finally, the drought disaster risk estimate was obtained. In the present study, Qujing was employed to assess the drought risk with the proposed model. The results showed that Xuanwei possessed higher risk, while Luliang and Zhanyi possessed lower risk. At the same time, the probability risk of drought in Malong and Luoping was increasing, while the probability risk of drought in in Qilin and Shizong was decreasing. The results obtained by the assessment model are consistent with the actual situation of Qujing and verify the model’s effectiveness. The study can provide scientific reference in drought risk management for Qujing and other places of China.