Markov Chain Decomposition of Monthly Rainfall into Daily Rainfall: Evaluation of Climate Change Impact

Table 4

Changes (represented by ratios of the 2x CO₂ condition with respect to the 1x CO₂ condition) of monthly rainfall amounts predicted by several GCMs (average, minimum, and maximum values were decided after excluding the lowest and highest predictions each month).

GCM	Month
	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
BCC-CSM1.1	0.6	2.1	1.3	0.8	1.3	1.5	0.9	1.1	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.5	1.06
BCC-CSM1.1 (m)	0.9	1.0	0.7	0.7	1.4	1.3	0.9	1.2	1.4	0.7	0.7	0.8	1.07
CCSM4	1.0	1.5	1.5	0.9	0.9	1.3	0.9	1.1	1.2	1.3	1.0	0.9	1.08
CESM1 (CAM5)	1.3	1.7	1.2	0.9	1.1	1.4	1.1	1.2	1.3	1.2	0.9	0.8	1.17
CSIRO-Mk3.6.0	1.5	1.4	1.5	0.8	1.1	1.1	1.0	1.2	1.1	0.5	1.1	1.7	1.10
FIO-ESM	0.9	0.7	0.6	0.8	1.4	1.3	0.8	1.1	0.9	0.7	1.0	0.3	0.98
GFDL-CM3	2.7	1.0	1.4	0.8	1.3	1.3	1.0	1.4	0.9	0.9	0.1	0.6	1.12
GFDL-ESM2M	0.7	0.5	1.0	0.9	1.3	1.1	0.9	1.0	1.0	1.1	0.7	0.6	0.98
GISS-E2-H	1.3	1.2	1.5	0.9	1.1	1.2	1.0	1.2	0.8	0.6	0.7	1.3	1.03
GISS-E2-R	0.7	1.7	1.6	1.2	1.1	1.2	0.9	1.1	0.8	0.9	1.0	1.7	1.05
IPSL-CM5A-MR	1.4	1.6	2.2	1.5	1.4	1.4	0.9	0.8	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.6	0.98
MIROC5	1.4	1.8	1.8	1.3	1.1	1.6	0.7	0.9	0.8	1.7	0.9	1.2	1.03
MIROC-ESM-CHEM	1.3	1.5	1.7	1.1	1.5	1.5	0.9	1.1	1.0	1.3	1.0	1.2	1.14
MIROC-ESM	1.3	1.6	0.8	1.3	1.3	2.1	1.0	1.1	1.3	1.9	1.4	0.9	1.25
MRI-CGCM3	0.8	1.4	1.4	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.0	1.3	1.0	1.0	1.3	0.9	1.13
NorESM1-M	1.0	0.8	0.8	1.1	1.2	1.3	1.1	1.2	1.2	1.5	0.8	0.8	1.14
Average	1.10	1.35	1.30	0.99	1.24	1.34	0.95	1.14	1.00	1.03	0.88	0.90	1.05
(minimum–	(0.7–	(0.7–	(0.7–	(0.8–	(1.1–	(1.1–	(0.8–	(0.9–	(0.8–	(0.6–	(0.3–	(0.5–	(0.94–
maximum)	1.5)	1.8)	1.8)	1.3)	1.4)	1.6)	1.1)	1.3)	1.3)	1.7)	1.3)	1.7)	1.16)