Predictor-Year Subspace Clustering Based Ensemble Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

Table 6

Regional monsoon forecast verification statistics for ensemble models during test period 1995–2014.

Regions	Verification measures	Ensm Model 1	Ensm Model 2	Ensm Model 3
Central	ACC between actual and predicted rainfall anomalies	0.57	0.64	0.66
	RMSE for forecast (%)	10.2	9.8	9.7
	PY (%) at allowed error 5%	45	55	55
	PY (%) at allowed error 10%	75	75	75
North East	ACC between actual and predicted rainfall anomalies	0.45	0.50	0.53
	RMSE for forecast (%)	9.9	9.6	9.4
	PY (%) at allowed error 5%	40	55	55
	PY (%) at allowed error 10%	65	75	75
North West	ACC between actual and predicted rainfall anomalies	0.47	0.46	0.43
	RMSE for forecast (%)	13.6	13.3	13.4
	PY (%) at allowed error 5%	35	45	40
	PY (%) at allowed error 10%	60	65	60
South Peninsular	ACC between actual and predicted rainfall anomalies	0.54	0.58	0.59
	RMSE for forecast (%)	11.3	10.8	11.4
	PY (%) at allowed error 5%	45	55	50
	PY (%) at allowed error 10%	70	75	75