(a) Observed
(b) CNRM:CM3
(f) MME average
Figure 7: The spatial distribution of the frequency in severe dry stages with three-month SPI less than or equal to −1.5 for past and future climate change projections. (a) Observed frequency of severe drought for the period 1976–2010 and (b–f) projected frequency of severe drought by each GCM and MME average for the period 2011–2099 for the climate change scenario. Note that the SPI series is calculated from a downscaled monthly precipitation using the four GCMs as inputs.