Future Changes in Drought Characteristics under Extreme Climate Change over South Korea

Table 5

Changes in the frequency in severe dry stages with three-month SPI less than −1.5 for past and future climate change projections. Observed frequency of severe drought for the period 1976–2010 and projected change in frequency of severe drought by each GCM and MME average for the period 2011–2099 for the climate change scenario. Difference is a percentage change in drought frequency between past and future periods, and positive value indicates increasing trend and vice versa. Note that the SPI series is calculated from a downscaled monthly precipitation using the four GCMs as inputs.

Name	ID	Observed	CNRM	CSIRO	ECHOG	HADCM	MME	Diff (%)
Han River	10	6.00	4.13	4.93	7.26	5.38	5.42	−10.68
Anseong Stream	11	6.10	3.99	4.90	7.35	5.54	5.44	−12.14
West of Han River	12	6.04	4.00	4.60	7.68	5.67	5.48	−10.18
East of Han River	13	6.17	4.71	5.52	6.00	5.71	5.48	−12.49
Nakdong River	20	7.30	4.56	6.02	6.36	6.12	5.76	−26.66
East of Nakdong River	24	6.10	5.18	6.15	6.13	5.82	5.82	−4.85
South of Nakdong River	25	6.34	4.67	6.99	6.66	6.68	6.25	−1.39
Hyeongsan River	21	6.82	5.20	6.50	6.50	5.99	6.05	−12.75
Taehwa River	22	6.69	5.51	7.38	6.89	6.23	6.50	−2.97
Hoeya, Sooyeong	23	6.52	5.46	7.24	6.94	6.32	6.49	−0.52
Geum River	30	7.19	4.35	5.45	6.81	5.72	5.58	−28.81
Sapgyo Stream	31	6.41	4.33	4.95	6.89	5.59	5.44	−17.87
West of Geum River	32	6.18	4.38	4.79	6.81	5.47	5.36	−15.19
Mangyeong, Dongjin	33	7.33	4.37	5.42	6.44	5.99	5.55	−31.98
Seomjin River	40	7.65	4.16	5.38	6.27	6.35	5.54	−38.12
South of Seomjin River	41	6.86	4.01	5.65	6.21	6.58	5.61	−22.21
Yeongsan River	50	7.43	3.92	4.83	6.03	6.31	5.27	−40.97
Tamjin River	51	6.02	3.75	4.88	5.99	6.40	5.26	−14.59
South of Yeongsan River	52	6.78	3.93	4.96	5.91	6.19	5.25	−29.16
West of Yeongsan River	53	7.04	3.97	5.04	6.09	6.32	5.36	−31.51