The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting

Table 4

The calculated performance indicators from (2a)–(2g) for the BSR, EAR expressed as a percentage (times 100) for all events, and then cold events/warms events only.

(a)

All events	BSR	EAR	Climatology
POD	82.2	61.0	0.0
FAR	28.9	31.4	N/A
SRO	71.1	68.6	N/A
CSI	60.9	47.7	0.0
CRN	91.2	81.7	57.7
FFR	8.8	18.3	42.3
BIAS	115.5	89.0	0.0

(b)

Cold/warm events	BSR	EAR	Climatology
POD	78.0/85.2	58.2/63.0	0.0/0.0
FAR	35.0/24.2	33.3/30.1	N/A
SRO	65.0/75.8	66.7/69.9	N/A
CSI	54.9/67.0	45.1/49.5	0.0/0.0
CRN	96.9/96.3	92.6/91.1	72.7/74.5
FFR	3.1/3.7	7.4/8.9	17.3/25.5
BIAS	120.0/112.3	87.3/80.1	0.0