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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2017, Article ID 3514381, 12 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/3514381
Research Article

Drought Hazard Evaluation in Boro Paddy Cultivated Areas of Western Bangladesh at Current and Future Climate Change Conditions

1Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2Department of Disaster Management, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur 5400, Bangladesh
3Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Chittagong, Chittagong 4331, Bangladesh

Correspondence should be addressed to Shuanghe Shen; nc.ude.tsiun@rhzqy

Received 5 September 2016; Revised 14 November 2016; Accepted 16 November 2016; Published 2 January 2017

Academic Editor: Eduardo García-Ortega

Copyright © 2017 Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Drought hazard is one of the main hindrances for sustaining food security in Bangladesh, and climate change may exacerbate it in the next several decades. This study aims to evaluate drought hazard at current and future climate change conditions in the Boro paddy cultivated areas of western Bangladesh using simulated climate data from the outputs of three global climate models (GCMs) based on the SRES A1B scenario for the period between 2041 and 2070. The threshold level of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was employed to identify drought events and its probability distribution function (PDF) was applied to create the drought hazard index. The study demonstrates that enhancement of potential evapotranspiration (PET) will surpass that of precipitation, resulting in intensified drought events in future. In addition, the PDFs of drought events will move the upper tail in future period compared to the baseline. The results showed that the southwestern region was more severe to the drought hazard than the northwestern region during the period of 1984 to 2013. From the results of three GCMs, in the mid-century period, drought hazard will slightly increase in the northwestern region and flatten with a decrease in the southwestern region. The outcomes will help to allocate agricultural adaptation plans under climate change condition in Bangladesh.