Table of Contents Author Guidelines Submit a Manuscript
Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2017 (2017), Article ID 4650284, 11 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/4650284
Research Article

Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China

1College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, Beijing 100875, China
2Agricultural Water Conservancy Department, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430015, China
3Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL 60439, USA
4State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

Correspondence should be addressed to Hongrui Wang; nc.ude.unb@gnawyrneh

Received 15 December 2016; Revised 21 February 2017; Accepted 14 March 2017; Published 16 May 2017

Academic Editor: Stefano Dietrich

Copyright © 2017 Linlin Fan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Linked References

  1. S. Madadgar and H. Moradkhani, “Drought analysis under climate change using copula,” Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol. 18, no. 7, pp. 746–759, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  2. L. S. Pereira, I. Cordery, and I. Iacovides, Coping with Water Scarcity: Addressing the Challenges, Springer, Netherlands, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  3. T. Raziei, B. Saghafian, A. A. Paulo, L. S. Pereira, and I. Bordi, “Spatial patterns and temporal variability of drought in Western Iran,” Water Resources Management, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 439–455, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  4. A. Zargar, R. Sadiq, B. Naser, and F. I. Khan, “A review of drought indices,” Environmental Reviews, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 333–349, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  5. T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, “The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scale,” in Procceding of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, pp. 179–186, American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, Calif, USA, January 1993.
  6. T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, “Drought monitoring with multiple time scales,” in Proceeding of the 9th Conference on Applied Climatology, pp. 233–236, Boston, Mass, USA, 1995.
  7. W. C. Palmer, “Meteorological drought,” Research Paper 45, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Office of Climatology, U.S. Weather Bureau, Washington, DC, USA, 1965. View at Google Scholar
  8. S. M. Vicente-Serrano, S. Beguería, and J. I. López-Moreno, “A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index,” Journal of Climate, vol. 23, no. 7, pp. 1696–1718, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  9. S. Beguería, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, F. Reig, and B. Latorre, “Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) revisited: parameter fitting, evapotranspiration models, tools, datasets and drought monitoring,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 34, no. 10, pp. 3001–3023, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  10. G. Tsakiris, D. Pangalou, and H. Vangelis, “Regional drought assessment based on the reconnaissance drought index (RDI),” Water Resources Management, vol. 21, no. 5, pp. 821–833, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  11. C. Tan, J. Yang, and M. Li, “Temporal-spatial variation of drought indicated by SPI and SPEI in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China,” Atmosphere, vol. 6, no. 10, pp. 1399–1421, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  12. S. Ghosh and K. Srinivasan, “Analysis of spatio-temporal characteristics and regional frequency of droughts in the southern peninsula of india,” Water Resources Management, vol. 30, pp. 1–20, 2016. View at Google Scholar
  13. A. Belayneh, J. Adamowski, and B. Khalil, “Short-term SPI drought forecasting in the awash river basin in Ethiopia using wavelet transforms and machine learning methods,” Sustainable Water Resour Manag, vol. 2, pp. 87–101, 2016. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  14. E. E. Moreira, C. L. Pires, and L. S. Pereira, “SPI drought class predictions driven by the north atlantic oscillation index using log-linear modeling,” Water, vol. 8, no. 43, 2016. View at Google Scholar
  15. S. Huang, J. Chang, Q. Huang, and Y. Chen, “Spatio-temporal changes and frequency analysis of drought in the Wei River Basin, China,” Water Resources Management, vol. 28, no. 10, pp. 3095–3110, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  16. M. B. Masud, M. N. Khaliq, and H. S. Wheater, “Analysis of meteorological droughts for the Saskatchewan River Basin using univariate and bivariate approaches,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 522, pp. 452–466, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  17. M. Yang, D. Yan, Y. Yu, and Z. Yang, “SPEI-based spatiotemporal analysis of drought in Haihe River basin from 1961 to 2010,” Advances in Meteorology, vol. 2016, Article ID 7658015, 10 pages, 2016. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  18. M. X. Yu, Q. F. Li, M. J. Hayes, M. D. Svoboda, and R. R. Heim, “Are droughts becoming more frequent or severe in China based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index: 1951–2010?” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 34, no. 3, pp. 545–558, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  19. A. Sklar, N-dimensional distribution functions and their margins, vol. 8, L'Institut de statistique de l'université de Paris, Paris, France, 1959. View at MathSciNet
  20. J. T. Shiau, “Fitting drought duration and severity with two-dimensional copulas,” Water Resources Management, vol. 20, no. 5, pp. 795–815, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  21. S. Song and V. P. Singh, “Meta-elliptical copulas for drought frequency analysis of periodic hydrologic data,” Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, vol. 24, pp. 425–444, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  22. A. Favre, S. El Adlouni, L. Perreault, N. Thiémonge, and B. Bobée, “Multivariate hydrological frequency analysis using copulas,” Water Resources Research, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 290–294, 2004. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  23. S. Grimaldi and F. Serinaldi, “Asymmetric copula in multivariate flood frequency analysis,” Advances in Water Resources, vol. 29, no. 8, pp. 1155–1167, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  24. A. AghaKouchak, A. Bárdossy, and E. Habib, “Copula-based uncertainty modelling: Application to multisensor precipitation estimates,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 24, no. 15, pp. 2111–2124, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  25. Q. Wang, P. Shi, T. Lei et al., “The alleviating trend of drought in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China based on the daily SPEI,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 35, pp. 3760–3769, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  26. J. H. Stagge, L. M. Tallaksen, L. Gudmundsson, A. F. Van Loon, and K. Stahl, “Candidate distributions for climatological drought indices (SPI and SPEI),” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 35, no. 13, pp. 4027–4040, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  27. H. Wang, S. M. Vicente-serrano, F. Tao et al., “Monitoring winter wheat drought threat in Northern China using multiple climate-based drought indices and soil moisture during 2000–2013,” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 228-229, pp. 1–12, 2016. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  28. B. Saghafian and H. Mehdikhani, “Drought characterization using a new copula-based trivariate approach,” Natural Hazards, vol. 72, no. 3, pp. 1391–1407, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  29. S. Madadgar and H. Moradkhani, “A bayesian framework for probabilistic seasonal drought forecasting,” Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 14, no. 6, pp. 1685–1705, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  30. Z. Hao, F. Hao, V. P. Singh, A. Y. Sun, and Y. Xia, “Probabilistic prediction of hydrologic drought using a conditional probability approach based on the meta-gaussian model,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 542, pp. 772–780, 2016. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  31. D. Zhang, L. Zhang, J. Yang, and G. Feng, “The impact of temperature and precipitation variation on drought in china in last 50 years,” Acta Physica Sinica, vol. 59, pp. 655–663, 2010. View at Google Scholar
  32. L. Fan, H. Wang, W. Lai, and C. Wang, “Administration of water resources in beijing: problems and countermeasures,” Water Policy, vol. 17, no. article 563, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  33. W. Cai, Y. Zhang, Q. Chen, and Y. Yao, “Spatial patterns and temporal variability of drought in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan areas in China,” Advances in Meteorology, vol. 2015, Article ID 289471, 14 pages, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  34. H. Liu, A. Zhang, T. Jiang, H. Lv, X. Liu, and H. Wang, “The spatiotemporal variation of drought in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region (BTHMR) based on the modified TVDI,” Sustainability, vol. 8, no. article 1327, 2016. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  35. Y. Li, W. Gu, W. Cui, Z. Chang, and Y. Xu, “Exploration of copula function use in crop meteorological drought risk analysis: a case study of winter wheat in Beijing, China,” Natural Hazards, vol. 77, no. 2, pp. 1289–1303, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  36. G. Buttafuoco, T. Caloiero, and R. Coscarelli, “Analyses of drought events in calabria (Southern Italy) using standardized precipitation index,” Water Resources Management, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 557–573, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  37. C. W. Thornthwaite, “An approach toward a rational classification of climate,” Geographical Review, vol. 38, pp. 55–89, 1948. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  38. N. E. Huang, Z. Shen, S. R. Long et al., “The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis,” Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol. 454, pp. 903–995, 1998. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at MathSciNet
  39. D. Zuo, Z. Xu, H. Yang, and X. Liu, “Spatiotemporal variations and abrupt changes of potential evapotranspiration and its sensitivity to key meteorological variables in the Wei River basin, China,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 26, no. 8, pp. 1149–1160, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  40. J. Zhao, Z.-X. Xu, D.-P. Zuo, and X.-M. Wang, “Temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration and its sensitivity to meteorological factors in Heihe River Basin, China,” Water Science and Engineering, vol. 8, pp. 1–8, 2015. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  41. S. Moazami, S. Golian, M. R. Kavianpour, and Y. Hong, “Uncertainty analysis of bias from satellite rainfall estimates using copula method,” Atmospheric Research, vol. 137, pp. 145–166, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  42. L. A. Jordanger and D. Tjøstheim, “Model selection of copulas: AIC versus a cross validation copula information criterion,” Statistics and Probability Letters, vol. 92, pp. 249–255, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  43. G. Schwarz, “Estimating the dimension of a model,” The Annals of Statistics, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 461–464, 1978. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at MathSciNet
  44. J. T. Shiau and R. Modarres, “Copula-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis in Iran,” Meteorological Applications, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 481–489, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  45. F. Yuan, M. Ma, L. Ren et al., “Possible future climate change impacts on the hydrological drought events in the weihe river basin, China,” Advances in Meteorology, vol. 2016, Article ID 2905198, 14 pages, 2016. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus