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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2017 (2017), Article ID 5757238, 16 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/5757238
Research Article

Drought Assessment and Projection under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Middle and Lower Jinsha River Basin

1Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan, China
2Ernst Basler + Partner, Zollikon, Switzerland

Correspondence should be addressed to Zhe Yuan; moc.621@6110_ehznauy

Received 4 February 2017; Accepted 18 April 2017; Published 30 May 2017

Academic Editor: Brian R. Nelson

Copyright © 2017 Zhe Yuan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

To gain an insight into the spatiotemporal variability of drought events and to assess trends under future climate change scenarios are fundamental for making sound mitigation and adaptation strategies. A new drought index, standardized supply-demand water index (SSDI), has been proposed in this research. The SSDI describes drought from the view of water supply-demand relations using a simple water balance model. It was used to assess historical drought events in the middle and lower Jinsha river basin (MLJRB) located in the southwest China and applied to address the drought conditions in the MLJRB under current and future climates. The results showed the following: (1) The average drought area during 2001 to 2011 reached up to 9.9 × 103 km2, accounting for 35.4% of the whole farmland area in the MLJRB, which was about twice as the drought area during 1961 to 2000. The region for greater drought severity with more drought events and longer duration was mainly distributed in Dali, Chuxiong, Kunming, and Yuxi. (2) For the period 2021 to 2050, total drought area was projected to increase by 43.2%. The drought-prone regions could move further towards the northwest of the MLJRB.