Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement
Global temperature increases under Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) scenarios. (a) unconditional INDC, (b) conditional INDC, and (c) temperature change relative to the preindustrial level (CMIP5: the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; MAGICC: Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change). The method of calculating temperature response to INDC emissions is presented in Section 2.3. The INDC-induced warming is calculated based on (2) by multiplying (cumulative carbon emission under the INDC scenarios) by (the ratio of GHG-attributable warming to cumulative emissions).