(a)
(b)
Figure 5: Simulated model mean temperature changes in response to Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) emissions for unconditional pledges in (a) 2030 and (b) 2100. The temperature anomalies are relative to preindustrial levels. The simulation data from 12 CMIP5 models were used to produce an average state of warming pattern for INDC (see Section 2.3). The 2030 spatial pattern for INDC was estimated based on RCP 4.5 scenario experiment due to the similar emission levels of RCP 4.5 and INDC for 2030. The 2100 spatial pattern for INDC was estimated based on RCP 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios experiments due to the available simulations of the two scenarios for larger temperature increases.