Table of Contents Author Guidelines Submit a Manuscript
Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2018, Article ID 2487962, 9 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/2487962
Research Article

Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement

1Department of Climate and Environment Change, Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China
2School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, 3800 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC, Canada V8W 3V6
3Department of Climate and Environment Change, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Correspondence should be addressed to Fang Wang; nc.ca.rrnsgi@fgnaw

Received 1 September 2017; Revised 12 March 2018; Accepted 29 March 2018; Published 8 May 2018

Academic Editor: Annalisa Cherchi

Copyright © 2018 Fang Wang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Linked References

  1. UNFCCC, Adoption of the Paris Agreement: Proposal by the President, UNFCCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 2015, Tech. Rep. FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1.
  2. UNFCCC, INDCs as Communicated by Parties, 2016, http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx.
  3. M. R. Allen, D. J. Frame, C. Huntingford et al., “Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne,” Nature, vol. 458, no. 7242, pp. 1163–1166, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  4. N. P. Gillett, V. K. Arora, D. Matthews, and M. R. Allen, “Constraining the ratio of global warming to cumulative CO2 emissions using CMIP5 simulations,” Journal of Climate, vol. 26, no. 18, pp. 6844–6858, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  5. T. C. Johns, J.-F. Royer, I. Höschel et al., “Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 37, no. 9-10, pp. 1975–2003, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  6. H. D. Matthews, N. P. Gillett, P. A. Stott, and K. Zickfeld, “The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions,” Nature, vol. 459, no. 7248, pp. 829–832, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  7. J. Rogelj, M. Meinshausen, and R. Knutti, “Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 248–253, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  8. K. B. Tokarska, N. P. Gillett, A. J. Weaver, V. K. Arora, and M. Eby, “The climate response to five trillion tonnes of carbon,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, no. 9, pp. 851–856, 2016. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  9. K. Zickfeld, M. Eby, H. D. Matthews, and A. J. Weaver, “Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 106, no. 38, pp. 16129–16134, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  10. K. Zickfeld, M. Eby, A. J. Weaver et al., “Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: an EMIC intercomparison,” Journal of Climate, vol. 26, no. 16, pp. 5782–5809, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  11. R. H. Moss, J. A. Edmonds, K. A. Hibbard et al., “The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment,” Nature, vol. 463, no. 7282, pp. 747–756, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  12. K. E. Taylor, R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, “An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 93, no. 4, pp. 485–498, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  13. M. Meinshausen, S. C. B. Raper, and T. M. L. Wigley, “Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6-part 1: model description and calibration,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 1417–1456, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  14. M. Meinshausen, T. M. L. Wigley, and S. C. B. Raper, “Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6-part 2: applications,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 1457–1471, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  15. K. Caldeira and J. F. Kasting, “Insensitivity of global warming potentials to carbon dioxide emission scenarios,” Nature, vol. 366, no. 6452, pp. 251–253, 1993. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  16. M. Collins, R. Knutti, J. Arblaster et al., “Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility,” in Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner et al., Eds., pp. 1029–1136, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013. View at Google Scholar
  17. T. Hajima, T. Ise, K. Tachiiri, E. Kato, S. Watanabe, and M. Kawamiya, “Climate change, allowable emission, and earth system response to representative concentration pathway scenarios,” Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, vol. 90, no. 3, pp. 417–434, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  18. M. C. Sarofim, C. E. Forest, D. M. Reiner, and J. M. Reilly, “Stabilization and global climate policy,” Global and Planetary Change, vol. 47, no. 2, pp. 266–272, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  19. UNFCCC, National Inventory Submissions, 2018, http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/10566.php.
  20. T. Athanasiou, S. Kartha, and P. Baer, National Fair Shares: The Mitigation Gap—Domestic Actions & International Support, 2016, https://climateequityreference.org/national-fair-shares-the-mitigation-gap-domestic-actions-international-support/.
  21. G. Myhre, D. Shindell, F.-M. Bréon et al., “Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing,” in Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner et al., Eds., pp. 659–740, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013. View at Google Scholar
  22. D. L. Hartmann, A. M. G. Klein Tank, M. Rusticucci et al., “Observations: atmosphere and surface,” in Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner et al., Eds., pp. 159–254, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013. View at Google Scholar
  23. C. Giannakopoulos, P. Le Sager, M. Bindi, M. Moriondo, E. Kostopoulou, and C. M. Goodess, “Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2 degrees C global warming,” Global and Planetary Change, vol. 68, no. 3, pp. 209–224, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  24. R. Vautard, A. Gobiet, S. Sobolowski et al., “The European climate under a 2 degrees C global warming,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 9, no. 3, p. 034006, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  25. C. R. Schleussner, T. K. Lissner, E. M. Fischer et al., “Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C,” Earth System Dynamics, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 327–351, 2016. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  26. J. P. Huang, H. P. Yu, A. G. Dai, Y. Wei, and L. T. Kang, “Drylands face potential threat under 2 degrees C global warming target,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 7, no. 6, pp. 417–422, 2017. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  27. V. K. Arora, G. J. Boer, P. Friedlingstein et al., “Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP5 earth system models,” Journal of Climate, vol. 26, no. 15, pp. 5289–5314, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  28. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), “WCRP coupled model intercomparison project phase 5-CMIP5,” CLIVAR Exchanges (Special Issue), pp. 1–52, 2011. View at Google Scholar
  29. V. Krey, O. Masera, G. Blanford et al., “Annex II: metrics & methodology,” in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2014. View at Google Scholar
  30. J. Rogelj, M. den Elzen, N. Höhne et al., “Paris agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2°C,” Nature, vol. 534, no. 7609, pp. 631–639, 2016. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  31. United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), The Emissions Gap Report 2015, UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya, 2016.
  32. Climate Interactive (CI), Climate Scoreboard, UN Climate Pledge Analysis, 2016, https://www.climateinteractive.org/programs/scoreboard/.
  33. Climate Action Tracker (CAT), Climate Pledges Will Bring 2.7°C of Warming, Potential for More Action, 2015, http://www.climateactiontracker.org/news/253/Climate-pledges-will-bring-2.7C-of-warming-potential-for-more-action.html.
  34. L. Clarke, K. Jiang, K. Akimoto et al., “Assessing transformation pathways,” in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2014. View at Google Scholar
  35. B. M. Sanderson, B. C. O’Neill, and C. Tebaldi, “What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 43, no. 13, pp. 7133–7142, 2016. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  36. UNFCCC, “Synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions,” UNFCCC, Paris, France, 2015, Tech. Rep. FCCC/CP/2015/7. View at Google Scholar
  37. D. Shindell, J. C. I. Kuylenstierna, E. Vignati et al., “Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security,” Science, vol. 335, no. 6065, pp. 183–189, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  38. K. Tanaka and T. Raddatz, “Correlation between climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing and its implication for the “climate trap”,” Climatic Change, vol. 109, no. 3, pp. 815–825, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus