Research Article
An Assessment of GCM Performance at a Regional Scale Using a Score-Based Method
Table 2
Model performances for monthly mean temperature.
| GCMs | GCM number | Mean value (°C) | StDev | NRMSE | Monthly corr. | Spatial corr. | M-K | EOF | PDF | Total RS | Zc | Slope (°C/10 a) | EOF1 | EOF2 | BS | Sscore |
| obs | | 8.49 | 0.53 | | | | 4.81 | 0.37 | 98.90 | 0.51 | | | | access1-0 | 1 | 6.81 | 0.47 | 0.23 | 0.999 | 0.95 | 3.64 | 0.28 | 97.46 | 0.74 | 0.006 | 89.22 | 16.89 | bcc-csm1 | 2 | 5.67 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.999 | 0.95 | 4.40 | 0.23 | 97.66 | 1.19 | 0.011 | 80.84 | 33.22 | bnu-esm | 3 | 6.63 | 0.62 | 0.27 | 0.997 | 0.94 | 3.69 | 0.36 | 98.26 | 0.64 | 0.005 | 91.50 | 17.68 | canesm2 | 4 | 7.77 | 0.51 | 0.18 | 0.998 | 0.93 | 5.38 | 0.35 | 97.66 | 1.15 | 0.002 | 91.19 | 17.99 | ccsm4 | 5 | 6.65 | 0.54 | 0.27 | 0.999 | 0.96 | 2.98 | 0.27 | 98.40 | 0.63 | 0.006 | 89.16 | 13.73 | cesm1-bgc | 6 | 6.79 | 0.45 | 0.25 | 0.998 | 0.96 | 2.55 | 0.20 | 98.43 | 0.72 | 0.005 | 91.13 | 16.04 | cnrm-cm5 | 7 | 5.07 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 0.996 | 0.95 | 1.38 | 0.10 | 98.03 | 0.76 | 0.011 | 83.78 | 31.09 | giss-e2-h | 8 | 7.12 | 0.42 | 0.25 | 0.995 | 0.94 | −0.10 | −0.01 | 97.95 | 0.99 | 0.006 | 83.48 | 32.58 | csiro-mk3.6 | 9 | 6.76 | 0.42 | 0.26 | 0.997 | 0.93 | 3.69 | 0.25 | 98.52 | 0.68 | 0.006 | 88.92 | 22.95 | fgoals-g2 | 10 | 7.49 | 0.58 | 0.19 | 0.996 | 0.95 | 4.59 | 0.44 | 97.73 | 1.19 | 0.004 | 86.06 | 17.73 | gfdl-cm3 | 11 | 5.33 | 0.61 | 0.36 | 0.996 | 0.97 | 2.96 | 0.27 | 97.74 | 0.94 | 0.012 | 77.21 | 26.83 | hadgem2 | 12 | 7.20 | 0.55 | 0.26 | 0.999 | 0.96 | 3.17 | 0.23 | 97.84 | 0.64 | 0.005 | 85.45 | 14.78 | inm-cm4 | 13 | 3.90 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.998 | 0.93 | 1.13 | 0.09 | 96.99 | 1.08 | 0.017 | 78.21 | 49.67 | noresm1-m | 14 | 5.58 | 0.47 | 0.35 | 0.998 | 0.95 | 4.24 | 0.31 | 98.35 | 0.75 | 0.011 | 83.65 | 23.11 | miroc-esm | 15 | 7.33 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.997 | 0.95 | 2.60 | 0.13 | 97.80 | 1.23 | 0.004 | 90.79 | 29.35 | mpi-esm-lr | 16 | 8.09 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.999 | 0.96 | 2.90 | 0.19 | 98.06 | 0.93 | 0.001 | 91.01 | 15.53 | ipsl-cm5b-lr | 17 | 3.62 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 0.997 | 0.93 | 2.17 | 0.15 | 98.47 | 0.59 | 0.019 | 72.67 | 42.89 | Mri-cgcm3 | 18 | 6.26 | 0.41 | 0.32 | 0.997 | 0.96 | 2.03 | 0.13 | 98.63 | 0.55 | 0.079 | 85.90 | 21.19 |
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EOFs 1 and 2 are percentages of the explained variance for the first two leading modes of each EOF; PDF is the probability density function.
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