Sensitivity of Dynamical Downscaling Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts to Convection and Land Surface Parameterization in a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

Table 3

Anomaly correlation coefficients of seasonal precipitation forecasts from 1999 to 2010.

		1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Spring	CFS	−0.184	0.773	0.681	−0.76	−0.703	0.699	0.669	0.53	−0.125	0.06	−0.587	−0.443
	K-N	−0.256	−0.293x	0.13x	−0.242	−0.272	0.016x	0.446	−0.279	0.052	0.21	−0.509	−0.213
	K-S	−0.405	−0.132x	0.179x	−0.152	−0.316	0.211x	0.48	0.09	−0.058	0.17	−0.492	−0.058
	B-N	−0.109	−0.309x	0.291x	−0.307	−0.162	0.332x	0.497	0.1	0.145	0.163	−0.697	0.129
	B-S	−0.178	−0.135x	0.162x	−0.191	−0.275	0.346x	0.366	0.156	0.087	0.166	−0.423	0.281
	G-N	−0.15	−0.374x	0.094x	−0.105	−0.116	0.186x	0.351	−0.217	0.086	0.142	−0.529	0
	G-S	−0.263	−0.312x	0.09x	−0.155	−0.368	0.29x	0.333	−0.069	−0.055	0.186	−0.501	0.382
	N-N	−0.173	−0.023x	−0.052x	−0.15	−0.269	0.239x	0.246	−0.121	0.336	−0.032	−0.288	−0.188
	N-S	−0.304	0.25x	0.046x	−0.268	−0.471	0.465x	0.345	0.226	0.262	0.036	−0.307	−0.222
Summer	CFS	0.886	−0.237	0.721	−0.183	0.499	−0.305	−0.203	0.494	−0.272	−0.112	0.403	−0.191
	K-N	0.403x	−0.117	0.361x	0.098	0.586	0.111	0.272	0.371	0.318	0.579	0.116	−0.03
	K-S	0.262x	−0.124	0.16x	0.199	0.587	0.24	0.395	0.364	0.366	0.688	0.228	−0.036
	B-N	0.359x	−0.278	0.4x	−0.041	0.326	0.155	−0.107	0.259	−0.058	0.411	−0.03	−0.151
	B-S	0.465x	−0.208	0.412x	−0.192	0.487	0.1	−0.266	0.34	−0.263	0.263	0.377	−0.219
	G-N	0.418x	−0.267	0.223x	0.176	0.531	0.129	0.11	0.418	0.312	0.441	0.522	0.072
	G-S	0.382x	−0.166	0.389x	0.123	0.519	0.224	0.25	0.476	0.303	0.371	0.588	0.105
	N-N	0.388x	0.056	0.443	−0.05	0.491	0.132	0.25	0.451	0.283	0.566	−0.03	0.075
	N-S	0.374x	−0.03	0.471	0.009	0.472	0.104	0.353	0.418	0.194	0.561	−0.017	−0.067
Autumn	CFS	−0.052	−0.316	0.275	0.184	0.113	−0.032	−0.425	0.212	0.39	0.168	−0.199	0.087
	K-N	−0.57	−0.416	0.359	−0.211	0.416	0.744	0.132	−0.146	0.017	0.331	−0.3	−0.321
	K-S	−0.533	−0.451	0.381	−0.176	0.496	0.734	0.323	−0.091	0	0.327	−0.366	−0.368
	B-N	−0.419	−0.384	0.381	−0.238	0.407	0.692	0.244	−0.155	0.121	0.296	−0.478	−0.369
	B-S	−0.54	−0.431	0.45	−0.255	0.467	0.77	0.351	−0.039	−0.046	0.297	−0.488	−0.2
	G-N	−0.595	−0.33	0.397	−0.004	0.391	0.723	0.206	−0.129	0.136	0.216	−0.44	−0.2
	G-S	−0.474	−0.394	0.445	−0.096	0.46	0.673	0.31	−0.041	0.049	0.255	−0.44	−0.212
	N-N	−0.572	−0.401	0.402	0.045	0.425	0.699	0.119	−0.284	0.206	0.394	−0.278	−0.227
	N-S	−0.464	−0.423	0.382	0.008	0.484	0.505	0.244	−0.248	0.075	0.387	−0.271	−0.219
Winter	CFS	0.884	0.78	−0.669	−0.448	−0.211	0.142	−0.34	0.177	−0.589	0.394	0.565	0.806
	K-N	0.554x	0.702	−0.548	−0.405	−0.119	0.059	−0.267	0.252	−0.522	0.088	0.441	0.714
	K-S	0.544x	0.688	−0.4	−0.408	−0.138	0.152	−0.315	0.234	−0.524	0.129	0.336	0.653
	B-N	0.459x	0.677	−0.572	−0.434	−0.073	0.069	−0.166	0.225	−0.524	0.055	0.49	0.716
	B-S	0.485x	0.672	−0.424	−0.438	−0.111	0.148	−0.193	0.238	−0.526	0.118	0.36	0.655
	G-N	0.435x	0.66	−0.579	−0.405	−0.097	0.067	−0.166	0.233	−0.471	0.015	0.494	0.686
	G-S	0.481x	0.643	−0.44	−0.422	−0.126	0.138	−0.209	0.248	−0.467	0.072	0.36	0.623
	N-N	0.456x	0.709	−0.57	−0.407	−0.094	0.073	−0.256	0.229	−0.528	0.041	0.483	0.735
	N-S	0.471x	0.7	−0.438	−0.42	−0.119	0.138	−0.265	0.226	−0.519	0.094	0.385	0.668

Statistically significant correlations at the 95% level are in bold shading. For WRF seasonal forecasts, an asterisk indicates that the result is statistically significant and better than the CFS reforecasts; bold indicates that the WRF seasonal forecasts are worse than the CFS reforecasts and statistical significance is retained; x indicates that the WRF seasonal forecasts are worse than the CFS reforecasts and statistical significance is lost.