Probabilistic Evaluation of Tibetan Plateau Mesoscale Vortex on 18 July 2013

Figure 6

Correlation (color shading) between TPMVI and 500 hPa GPH in the 50-member forecast for next 0 to 84 h (12 h interval) in (a–h) and for next 90–108 h (4-time average, 1800 UTC 17 July–1200 UTC 18 July) in (i) initialized at 0000 UTC 14 July 2013. The black contours and black vectors are the ensemble-mean of the 500 hPa GPHs (unit: gpm) and winds (unit: m/s) of 6 stronger members, and the green contour is the ensemble-mean of the 500 hPa GPHs (unit: gpm) of 6 weaker members. The asterisk shows the significant location of the correlation according to the synoptic systems coherent rules. The blue boxes in Figures 6(a)–6(i) show the area with correlations coefficient roughly beyond the 95% confidence level near WPSH and the black boxes indicate the TPMV over the SCB, respectively.

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

(f)

(g)

(h)

(i)