Water Supply Risk Analysis Based on Runoff Sequence Simulation with Change Point under Changing Environment

Table 1

Comparison of stochastic simulation results of monthly runoff for Panjiakou reservoir during 1956–2016.

Month	Mean flow				Standard deviation								r
	Observed	T-F	C(1)	C(m)	Observed	T-F	C(1)	C(m)	Observed	T-F	C(1)	C(m)	Observed	T-F	C(1)	C(m)
1	10.803	10.750	10.509	10.776	2.105	1.903	2.068	2.025	0.195	0.177	0.197	0.190	0.948	0.811	0.677	0.778
2	11.118	11.105	11.033	11.15	2.22	2.050	2.175	2.146	0.2	0.185	0.197	0.191	0.873	0.710	0.721	0.731
3	19.91	19.981	19.831	20.006	3.024	3.434	3.094	3.146	0.152	0.172	0.156	0.157	0.662	0.747	0.574	0.53
4	30.44	30.565	30.251	30.297	3.812	3.634	3.856	3.748	0.125	0.119	0.127	0.120	0.771	0.615	0.568	0.552
5	18.926	19.099	18.474	18.937	3.212	3.520	4.249	3.103	0.17	0.184	0.230	0.167	0.351	0.372	0.45	0.369
6	34.636	34.420	32.772	34.143	5.913	6.040	4.942	4.914	0.171	0.175	0.151	0.144	0.34	0.403	0.405	0.414
7	155.712	155.597	158.216	155.435	12.588	12.782	11.797	12.29	0.081	0.082	0.075	0.079	0.489	0.682	0.66	0.623
8	204.781	204.750	207.772	204.698	14.02	14.145	14.539	14.414	0.068	0.069	0.070	0.070	0.841	0.843	0.702	0.73
9	92.999	92.707	87.153	92.654	10.313	9.532	9.825	9.955	0.111	0.103	0.113	0.106	0.922	0.854	0.78	0.762
10	59.389	59.320	57.842	59.49	6.073	5.667	5.8	5.638	0.102	0.096	0.100	0.094	0.909	0.810	0.77	0.766
11	35.206	35.179	34.716	35.218	4.057	3.826	4.082	4.04	0.115	0.109	0.118	0.116	0.845	0.683	0.725	0.739
12	15.248	15.179	14.54	15.183	2.639	2.699	2.544	2.447	0.173	0.178	0.175	0.162	0.637	0.532	0.609	0.602
RMSE	—	0.004	0.031	0.005	—	0.070	0.109	0.063	—	0.068	0.111	0.060	—	0.180	0.211	0.181