Research Article
The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Oat Lodging in the UK and Republic of Ireland
Table 2
Monthly average precipitation rate anomaly (%) using baseline 1981–2010 in June and July.
| Month | Region | Projection | 2020–2049 | 2050–2079 | RCP 2.6 | RCP 4.5 | RCP 6 | RCP 8.5 | RCP 2.6 | RCP 4.5 | RCP 6 | RCP 8.5 |
| June | South England | Probabilistic | −26% to +17% | −24% to +19% | −24% to +19% | −27% to +19% | −37% to +3% | −42% to 2% | −43% to +2% | −50% to +4% | Regional | | | | −50% to +50% | | | | −70% to +20% | Global | | | | −40% to +40% | | | | −70% to +20% | West England | Probabilistic | −31% to +22% | −30% to +22% | −29% to +22% | −32% to +21% | −38% to +4% | −43% to +3% | −44% to +3% | −51% to +4% | Regional | | | | −50% to +30% | | | | −70% to +10% | Global | | | | −40% to +40% | | | | −70% to +20% | Scotland | Probabilistic | −18% to +22% | −17% to +22% | −17% to +23% | −17% to +22% | −25% to +14% | −27% to +14% | −27% to +14% | −29% to +14% | Regional | | | | −30% to +60% | | | | −40% to +30% | Global | | | | −40% to +40% | | | | −50% to +30% | Ireland | Regional | | | | −50% to +20% | | | | −70% to 0% | Global | | | | −40% to +30% | | | | −60% to +20% |
| July | South England | Probabilistic | −43% to +16% | −44% to +16% | −44% to +17% | −47% to +14% | −44% to +12% | −49% to +9% | −49% to 10% | −56% to +7% | Regional | | | | −40% to +50% | | | | −60% to +10% | Global | | | | −50% to +50% | | | | −70% to +30% | West England | Probabilistic | −27% to +19% | −29% to +19% | −28% to +19% | −31% to +18% | −37% to +9% | −41% to +8% | −40% to +8% | −47% to +5% | Regional | | | | −40% to +20% | | | | −60% to +10% | Global | | | | −30% to +50% | | | | −60% to +30% | Scotland | Probabilistic | −28% to +22% | −28% to +22% | −28% to +22% | −30% to +21% | −38% to +15% | −40% to +17% | −40% to +17% | −47% to +19% | Regional | | | | −40% to +30% | | | | −50% to +10% | Global | | | | −30% to +40% | | | | −50% to +20% | Ireland | Regional | | | | −50% to +30% | | | | −60% to −10% | Global | | | | −40% to +40% | | | | −60% to +40% |
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