Solar GHI Ensemble Prediction Based on a Meteorological Model and Method Kalman Filter

Table 4

Prediction interval sizes for the intraday solar GHI prediction with regard to the prediction interval of the ensemble prediction during the period from December 1 to 10 in 2013.

Rate of nominal coverage for prediction interval (%)	Prediction method and member	Prediction interval size [W/m^2]
		12/01	12/02	12/03	12/04	12/05	12/06	12/07	12/08	12/09	12/10	Ave
50		79.9	65.4	65.4	112.9	65.4	120.9	82.9	65.4	90.8	104.7	85.4
		76.7	55.0	55.0	107.9	54.9	109.7	78.3	54.9	91.6	98.9	78.3
80		155.6	111.8	111.8	231.9	111.8	232.1	164.5	111.7	196.7	208.0	163.6
		147.2	99.6	99.6	212.2	99.5	196.9	155.8	99.4	188.4	190.6	148.9
90		217.0	144.5	144.5	316.4	144.4	304.6	233.3	144.3	287.1	284.4	222.1
		208.6	127.1	126.9	328.0	126.9	290.3	223.1	126.8	272.8	279.0	210.9
95		274.8	171.9	171.9	427.6	171.8	408.2	320.7	171.8	381.3	378.4	287.9
		266.8	163.5	163.3	431.1	163.3	398.9	288.6	163.2	328.8	338.1	270.6