Forecasting Confirmed Malaria Cases in Northwestern Province of Zambia: A Time Series Analysis Using 2014–2020 Routine Data

Table 1

Estimation of the ARIMA model.

Tentative models for malaria	ARIMA (1,0,1)	ARIMA (1,0,2)	ARIMA (2,0,1)	ARIMA (2,0,2)	ARIMA (1,1,1)	ARIMA (1,1,2)	ARIMA (2,1,1)	ARIMA (2,1,2)
Log-likelihood	−893.8	−903.4	−899.2	−898.4	−893.8	−894.9	−882.7	−873.2
Significant coefficient	2	3	2	2	1	1	2	4
Sigma^2 (volatility)	11471.2	11161.8	10607.2	10486.8	11471.2	11476.5	9795.2	8753.2
AIC	1823.4	1816.3	1808.5	1808.9	1795.6	1799.8	1775.4	1758.5
BIC	1833.1	1828.4	1820.6	1823.7	1805.1	1811.9	1777.5	1773.8

AIC, Akaike information criteria; BIC, Bayesian information criteria; ARIMA, autoregressive integration moving average.