Utilization Patterns and Projected Demand of Antiretroviral Drugs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Table 2

Demand for antiretroviral medicines for the linear projection with fast and slower phase-out of stavudine, 2008–2012 (person-years of antiretroviral therapy) (millions).

	Year
	2008	2009			2010			2011			2012
Molecule	Reported^a	Fast d4T phase-out^a	Slower d4T phase-out^a	Difference between scenarios	Fast d4T phase-out^a	Slower d4T phase-out^a	Difference between scenarios	Fast d4T phase-out^a	Slower d4T phase-out^a	Difference between scenarios	Fast d4T phase-out^a	Slower d4T phase-out^a	Difference between scenarios
d4T	1.92	2.12	2.23	5%	2.00	2.41	20%	1.68	2.48	47%	1.18	2.43	105%
ZDV	1.26	1.67	1.60	−4%	2.15	1.92	−11%	2.68	2.23	−17%	3.26	2.56	−22%
3TC	3.23	4.03	4.00	−1%	4.73	4.70	−1%	5.40	5.36	−1%	6.06	5.96	−2%
NVP	2.00	2.34	2.30	−2%	2.70	2.61	−3%	3.00	2.85	−5%	3.26	3.00	−8%
EFV	1.15	1.72	1.72	0%	2.14	2.16	1%	2.59	2.64	2%	3.08	3.14	2%
ABC	0.05	0.06	0.07	12%	0.06	0.09	46%	0.05	0.11	115%	0.04	0.14	297%
ddI	0.08	0.09	0.10	9%	0.09	0.12	35%	0.07	0.14	95%	0.03	0.15	360%
IDV	0.01	0.01	0.01	36%	0.01	0.02	142%	0.01	0.03	345%	0.01	0.05	750%
LPV	0.18	0.22	0.22	0%	0.28	0.28	1%	0.34	0.35	3%	0.41	0.43	4%
TDF	0.21	0.54	0.50	−8%	1.02	0.89	−13%	1.63	1.38	−15%	2.37	1.99	−16%
FTC	0.10	0.25	0.24	−2%	0.38	0.36	−4%	0.55	0.51	−6%	0.74	0.69	−7%
NFV	0.01	0.01	0.01	−6%	0.01	0.01	−20%	0.01	0.00	−45%	0.00	0.00	−100%
RTV	0.16	0.22	0.22	2%	0.28	0.29	6%	0.34	0.38	10%	0.41	0.48	15%
SQV	0.00	0.00	0.00	69%	0.00	0.01	228%	0.00	0.01	448%	0.00	0.02	730%
ATV	0.03	0.03	0.03	8%	0.03	0.04	28%	0.04	0.06	54%	0.04	0.08	88%

^aUnits are millions of person-years of antiretroviral therapy.