Utilization Patterns and Projected Demand of Antiretroviral Drugs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Table 2
Demand for antiretroviral medicines for the linear projection with fast and slower phase-out of stavudine, 2008–2012 (person-years of antiretroviral therapy) (millions).
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Molecule
Reporteda
Fast d4T phase-outa
Slower d4T phase-outa
Difference between scenarios
Fast d4T phase-outa
Slower d4T phase-outa
Difference between scenarios
Fast d4T phase-outa
Slower d4T phase-outa
Difference between scenarios
Fast d4T phase-outa
Slower d4T phase-outa
Difference between scenarios
d4T
1.92
2.12
2.23
5%
2.00
2.41
20%
1.68
2.48
47%
1.18
2.43
105%
ZDV
1.26
1.67
1.60
−4%
2.15
1.92
−11%
2.68
2.23
−17%
3.26
2.56
−22%
3TC
3.23
4.03
4.00
−1%
4.73
4.70
−1%
5.40
5.36
−1%
6.06
5.96
−2%
NVP
2.00
2.34
2.30
−2%
2.70
2.61
−3%
3.00
2.85
−5%
3.26
3.00
−8%
EFV
1.15
1.72
1.72
0%
2.14
2.16
1%
2.59
2.64
2%
3.08
3.14
2%
ABC
0.05
0.06
0.07
12%
0.06
0.09
46%
0.05
0.11
115%
0.04
0.14
297%
ddI
0.08
0.09
0.10
9%
0.09
0.12
35%
0.07
0.14
95%
0.03
0.15
360%
IDV
0.01
0.01
0.01
36%
0.01
0.02
142%
0.01
0.03
345%
0.01
0.05
750%
LPV
0.18
0.22
0.22
0%
0.28
0.28
1%
0.34
0.35
3%
0.41
0.43
4%
TDF
0.21
0.54
0.50
−8%
1.02
0.89
−13%
1.63
1.38
−15%
2.37
1.99
−16%
FTC
0.10
0.25
0.24
−2%
0.38
0.36
−4%
0.55
0.51
−6%
0.74
0.69
−7%
NFV
0.01
0.01
0.01
−6%
0.01
0.01
−20%
0.01
0.00
−45%
0.00
0.00
−100%
RTV
0.16
0.22
0.22
2%
0.28
0.29
6%
0.34
0.38
10%
0.41
0.48
15%
SQV
0.00
0.00
0.00
69%
0.00
0.01
228%
0.00
0.01
448%
0.00
0.02
730%
ATV
0.03
0.03
0.03
8%
0.03
0.04
28%
0.04
0.06
54%
0.04
0.08
88%
aUnits are millions of person-years of antiretroviral therapy.