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BioMed Research International
Volume 2013 (2013), Article ID 467078, 7 pages
Research Article

A Universal Model for Predicting Dynamics of the Epidemics Caused by Special Pathogens

State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology Vector, Russian Federation, Koltsovo, Novosibirsk 630559, Russia

Received 29 April 2013; Revised 24 June 2013; Accepted 7 July 2013

Academic Editor: James M. McCaw

Copyright © 2013 Alexander G. Bachinsky and Lily Ph. Nizolenko. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


A universal model intended primarily for predicting dynamics of the mass epidemics (outbreaks) caused by special pathogens is being developed at the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology Vector. The model includes the range of major countermeasures: preventive and emergency mass vaccination, vaccination of risk groups as well as search for and isolation/observation of infected cases, contacts, and suspects, and quarantine. The intensity of interventions depends on the availability of the relevant resources. The effect of resource limitations on the development of a putative epidemic of Ebola hemorrhagic fever is demonstrated. The modeling results allow for estimation of the material and human resources necessary for eradication of an epidemic.