The Impact of Coinfections and Their Simultaneous Transmission on Antigenic Diversity and Epidemic Cycling of Infectious Diseases

Figure 6

Example time series for the proportion of infected individuals. Other model parameter values are 𝛽₁=1.0 day⁻¹, 𝑅₀=15,  1/𝜇=70 years, 𝑛=10, and 𝑚=4; simultaneous transmissions of various coinfections as 𝛽₂=0.5 day⁻¹, 𝛽₃=0.40 day⁻¹, and 𝛽₄=0.32 day⁻¹. Note that the steady total prevalence from (6) would be 4.37×10⁻³ if the system remained in steady state. This is much smaller than the maximal prevalence within cyclical epidemics shown here.

(a) 𝜙=0.6

(b) 𝜙=1.0

(c) 𝜙=2.0