Bayesian Estimation of the True Prevalence and of the Diagnostic Test Sensitivity and Specificity of Enteropathogenic Yersinia in Finnish Pig Serum Samples

Table 2

Estimates of the posterior distributions of the prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia in serum at pig and herd level. Estimates were obtained based on a systematic review of the literature and used for building the model in the second step.

Sample	Parameter	Median (95% PI)	Beta distribution
			Alpha	Beta
Serum	Herd prevalence	0.879 (0.418–0.994)	4.157	1.435
	Pig prevalence slaughter-age pigs	0.883 (0.694–0.992)	16.461	3.049
	Pig prevalence sows	0.901 (0.469–0.995)	4.779	1.415
	Sensitivity^a		63	29
	Specificity^b	1	6.024	1.051

PI: the 95% probability intervals.
^aInformation obtained from the validation report of the commercial ELISA test.
^bSpecificity value of 1 was replaced by a most likely value of 0.9.