Modelling Seasonal Brucellosis Epidemics in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, 2010–2014

<table class="table-group" id="tab1"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Season </td><td class="align_center">Average newly acute human brucellosis cases (<svg height="14.752pt" id="M13" style="vertical-align:-5.52894pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.22306 11.8196 14.752" width="11.8196pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><rect height="0.65243" width="7.29424" x="0" y="-8.52081"></rect><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M536 404C536 423 520 448 491 448C445 448 398 404 308 283L286 338C255 416 242 448 217 448C182 448 138 402 92 341L111 321C149 368 169 378 178 378C188 378 198 363 214 320L254 212C185 117 138 65 107 65C98 65 85 69 82 75C79 82 73 86 65 86C44 86 23 60 23 39C23 7 44 -12 71 -12C119 -12 168 33 265 177L306 61C321 17 347 -12 373 -12C413 -12 465 33 507 96L491 119C459 84 432 60 413 60C395 60 378 92 358 148L321 250C341 279 369 310 389 332C417 363 439 382 456 382C466 382 475 376 481 368C486 361 492 358 496 358C513 358 536 381 536 404Z" id="g113-121"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="559" vert-adv-y="559"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.294,3.132)"><path d="M400 606C400 634 383 656 353 656C316 656 294 620 294 593C294 564 317 545 343 545C375 545 400 573 400 606ZM366 351C379 413 381 451 356 451C323 451 251 408 183 341L199 313C223 335 267 365 277 365C285 365 284 354 277 312C245 132 222 27 193 -100C182 -148 160 -188 131 -188C113 -188 90 -178 75 -170C64 -164 55 -168 48 -175C38 -185 24 -203 24 -222S48 -257 71 -257C89 -257 131 -241 186 -192C243 -141 286 -46 310 74L366 351Z" id="g50-107"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="430" vert-adv-y="430"></glyph.data></g></svg>)</td><td class="align_center">Season exponent (<svg height="14.1649pt" id="M14" style="vertical-align:-5.529pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 10.6192 14.1649" width="10.6192pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M449 634C442 637 425 643 405 650C376 660 341 666 307 666C181 666 98 590 98 485C98 400 170 343 215 310L246 288C307 243 343 204 343 147C343 67 291 18 219 18C104 18 61 124 51 202L23 199C28 124 27 71 27 47C47 22 122 -16 204 -16C324 -16 428 60 428 174C428 256 379 309 307 360L276 382C223 419 179 455 179 516C179 576 221 632 293 632C379 632 410 564 418 487L448 490C446 536 446 592 449 634Z" id="g113-84"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="472" vert-adv-y="472"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.071,3.132)"><path d="M400 606C400 634 383 656 353 656C316 656 294 620 294 593C294 564 317 545 343 545C375 545 400 573 400 606ZM366 351C379 413 381 451 356 451C323 451 251 408 183 341L199 313C223 335 267 365 277 365C285 365 284 354 277 312C245 132 222 27 193 -100C182 -148 160 -188 131 -188C113 -188 90 -178 75 -170C64 -164 55 -168 48 -175C38 -185 24 -203 24 -222S48 -257 71 -257C89 -257 131 -241 186 -192C243 -141 286 -46 310 74L366 351Z" id="g50-107"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="430" vert-adv-y="430"></glyph.data></g></svg>)</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Spring</td><td class="align_center">38.6</td><td class="align_center">0.56</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Summer</td><td class="align_center">91.2</td><td class="align_center">1.32</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Autumn</td><td class="align_center">96.1</td><td class="align_center">1.39</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Winter</td><td class="align_center">50.8</td><td class="align_center">0.73</td></tr><tr><td class="align_center" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"> </td><td class="align_center"><svg height="9.42945pt" id="M15" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.22306 7.39387 9.42945" width="7.39387pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><rect height="0.65243" width="7.29424" x="0" y="-8.52081"></rect><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M536 404C536 423 520 448 491 448C445 448 398 404 308 283L286 338C255 416 242 448 217 448C182 448 138 402 92 341L111 321C149 368 169 378 178 378C188 378 198 363 214 320L254 212C185 117 138 65 107 65C98 65 85 69 82 75C79 82 73 86 65 86C44 86 23 60 23 39C23 7 44 -12 71 -12C119 -12 168 33 265 177L306 61C321 17 347 -12 373 -12C413 -12 465 33 507 96L491 119C459 84 432 60 413 60C395 60 378 92 358 148L321 250C341 279 369 310 389 332C417 363 439 382 456 382C466 382 475 376 481 368C486 361 492 358 496 358C513 358 536 381 536 404Z" id="g113-121"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="559" vert-adv-y="559"></glyph.data></g></svg> = 69.71</td><td class="align_center"> </td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="3"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

The season exponent of average newly acute human brucellosis cases from 2005 to 2014.

BioMed Research International

tab1

Table 1

Table 1: Modelling Seasonal Brucellosis Epidemics in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, 2010–2014 