Modelling Seasonal Brucellosis Epidemics in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, 2010–2014

Table 5

The predicted number of newly acute human brucellosis cases from the spring of 2015 to the winter of 2034 and 95% confidence interval.

Year	Spring	Summer	Autumn	Winter
2015	181 [131–246]	575 [487–652]	533 [478–604]	282 [211–373]
2016	340 [247–469]	1118 [928–1287]	1004 [887–1163]	521 [377–735]
2017	659 [482–919]	2195 [1818–2543]	1943 [1697–2276]	998 [700–1458]
2018	1281 [938–1784]	4193 [3464–4863]	3750 [3258–4292]	1921 [1319–2775]
2019	2393 [1749–3239]	7388 [5866–8439]	6903 [6023–7943]	3572 [2404–4762]
2020	4064 [2957–5341]	11290 [8706–12826]	11431 [10142–13223]	6057 [4085–7929]
2021	5935 [4283–7929]	14361 [10993–16722]	16113 [12757–18557]	8839 [4684–11153]
2022	7244 [5179–9825]	14415 [11556–17446]	18959 [13194–21629]	10786 [4582–13018]
2023	7526 [5339–10324]	15325 [11920–18242]	19191 [12443–22493]	11260 [4198–13130]
2024	7008 [4864–10170]	12669 [10336–15563]	17674 [11259–21278]	10606 [3758–12407]
2025	6175 [4253–9571]	10878 [8868–13556]	15574 [10089–18989]	9489 [3367–11094]
2026	5350 [3707–8676]	9365 [7607–11835]	13572 [9104–16576]	8349 [3053–9760]
2027	4657 [3270–7775]	8186 [6609–10483]	11908 [8332–14458]	7365 [2813–8590]
2028	4114 [2891–6989]	7297 [5857–9463]	10605 [7749–12739]	6578 [2635–7625]
2029	3702 [2603–6349]	6634 [5291–8708]	9612 [7319–11391]	5968 [2504–6861]
2030	3393 [2388–5842]	6141 [4856–8151]	8862 [7003–10349]	5504 [2408–6267]
2031	3160 [2408–6267]	5771 [4524–7739]	8297 [6770–9546]	5152 [2337–5821]
2032	2985 [2104–5142]	5490 [4276–7430]	7867 [6596–8926]	4883 [2283–5484]
2033	2851 [2010–4903]	5271 [4065–7192]	7536 [6431–8443]	4676 [2239–5224]
2034	2746 [1937–4715]	5097 [3904–7028]	7276 [6272–8087]	4514 [2202–5019]