Research Article

Evaluation of Influenza Vaccination Efficacy: A Universal Epidemic Model

Table 2

Limits and nominal “costs” of optimization indices when modeling seasonal influenza epidemic.

ParameterParameter limitsThe unit “cost”Parameter value in optimized conditions at the upper limit of rate of immune people (60%)1

Rate of immune persons, %0–50 (60; 70)100060

Parameters of antiepidemic measures
Rate of daily isolated asymptomatic contacts/suspects, %0–10100–2
Rate of daily isolated patients in prodromal stage (nonimmune), % 0–10100–8
Rate of daily isolated patients in prodromal stage (immune), % 0–8100-1
Rate of daily isolated patients in final stage (severe case), %0–15100–3
Minimal rate of daily isolated symptomatic patients, %0–2100–2
Maximal rate of people having started daily to obtain prophylactic treatment in risk groups, %0–5050–12

Parameters of resources
Number of medics/paramedics involved in epidemic eradication100–2000100100
Number of teams searching for and isolating or observing infected cases and contacts0–1002001
Number of patients/contacts detected by one team per day0–20505
Number of units issuing chemoprophylactic items0–5001000
Number of people daily serviced in one unit0–500500
Stock of prophylactic items0–100000020
Reserve of drugs (for one treatment course)0–100000030
Bed capacity for strict isolation0–300001000–2
Bed capacity in provisional hospitals0–2500500
Bed capacity in quarantine departments for contacts0–10000700

Minimal and maximal value for optimization parameters obtained after five iterations of the procedure.