Critical Care Research and Practice

Research Article

Predicting Outcomes for Interhospital Transferred Patients of Emergency General Surgery

Table 5

Multivariable ordinal logistic regression measuring association of clinical factors with patients’ outcomes of HLOS and disposition. The order for HLOS was 0 (short, ≤5 days), 1 (medium, >5 days to ≤12 days), and 2 (long, >12 days). The order for disposition was 1 (home), 2 (rehab or subacute facility), 3 (skilled nursing facility), and 4 (discharge to hospice or death). All independent variables selected a priori were included in the models; only variables that were statistically significant were reported.


Variables	Ordinal logistic regression
Variables	Coefficient	95% CI

Outcome: HLOS^†
Diagnosis—appendicitis	2.08	1.41–45.81	0.019
Diagnosis—liver or gallbladder infection	0.94	1.32–5.01	0.006
Unit—transferred from ED	0.46	1.07–2.33	0.021
Diagnosis—fistula	−1.01	0.17–0.77	0.009
Procedure type—laparotomy	−0.83	0.26–0.72	0.001
Lactate hypoperfusion	−0.59	0.35–0.88	0.011
Total SOFA score—each point^¶	−0.20	0.77–0.87	<0.001

Outcome: disposition^‡
Unit—transferred from ED	0.63	1.13–3.09	0.015
Diagnosis—fistula	−1.82	0.05–0.53	0.003
Diagnosis—bowel perforation	−1.44	0.07–0.77	0.017
Diagnosis—intra-abdominal infection	−1.34	0.09–0.77	0.015
Procedure type—laparotomy	−0.71	0.30–0.81	0.006
Lactate hypoperfusion	-0.61	0.35–0.83	0.005
Total SOFA score—each point^¶	−0.15	0.82–0.90	<0.001
Age—each year	−0.06	0.93–0.95	<0.001

^¶Higher score indicates more severe disease. Goodness-of-fit test: ^†Deviance test. Degrees of freedom: 1267, χ²: 1159, . ^‡Deviance test; Degrees of freedom: 2091, χ²: 1117, P = 0.99. (+) correlation coefficient is associated with the lowest rank of the ordinal regression and the next one after it; (+) value is associated with lower HLOS and discharge home. (−) correlation coefficient is associated with the highest rank of the ordinal regression and the next one below it; (−) value is associated with longer HLOS and discharge to hospice or death. CI: confidence interval; ED: emergency department; HLOS: hospital length of stay; OR: odds ratio; SOFA: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment.