Dynamic Determinants of Longevity and Exceptional Health
Table 2
Effect of “dynamic” risk factors calculated from individual trajectories of physiological indices at ages 40–60 on risk of onset of “unhealthy life” at ages 60+ in the Framingham Heart Study (original cohort) estimated by the Cox proportional hazards model.
Physiological Index
Risk Factor (RF)
Mean RF (St. Dev.)
Cox Regression Model
Parameter (S.E.)
Hazard Ratio (95% C.I.)
BMI (, , )
25.587 (3.954)
(0.007)
1.198 (1.119, 1.283)
0.057 (0.162)
(0.159)
1.116 (1.055, 1.180)
0.679 (0.381)
0.013 (0.070)
1.005 (0.953, 1.060)
Sex
(0.049)
1.668 (1.513, 1.837)
HC (, , )
45.044 (4.641)
(0.012)
1.556 (1.365, 1.774)
−0.021 (0.269)
(0.182)
1.384 (1.250, 1.533)
1.547 (0.635)
0.082 (0.046)
1.069 (0.993, 1.150)
Sex
(0.073)
1.332 (1.155, 1.536)
PP (, , )
43.612 (12.635)
(0.003)
1.249 (1.170, 1.334)
0.480 (0.814)
(0.040)
1.325 (1.237, 1.420)
4.667 (1.944)
(0.014)
1.111 (1.046, 1.181)
Sex
(0.048)
1.781 (1.622, 1.957)
Notes. , , , , for other estimates: ; Sex: 1—male, 0—female; the other Risk Factors are continuous and calculated as described in Section 2; denotes the total number of individuals; is the total number of events (onset of “unhealthy life”); is the total number of censored individuals; Hazard Ratios for continuous risk factors are for an increase from the first quartile to the third quartile of respective empirical distributions.