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Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience
Volume 2014, Article ID 103196, 7 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/103196
Research Article

Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

School of Transportation Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, Anhui 230009, China

Received 11 September 2014; Accepted 8 December 2014; Published 31 December 2014

Academic Editor: Yongjun Shen

Copyright © 2014 Feng Zhong-xiang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.