Two Different Points of View through Artificial Intelligence and Vector Autoregressive Models for Ex Post and Ex Ante Forecasting

Table 3

The results of variance decomposition.

Period	S.E.	DGOLDPRICE	DBIST	DUSD
Variance decomposition of DGOLDPRICE
1	2.326149	100.0000	0.000000	0.000000
2	2.418729	99.52846	0.337312	0.134227
3	2.426568	99.31653	0.455137	0.228337
4	2.431537	99.20369	0.481523	0.314782
5	2.431664	99.20029	0.481729	0.317978
6	2.431714	99.19671	0.483779	0.319516
7	2.431728	99.19564	0.484172	0.320188
8	2.431729	99.19562	0.484173	0.320207
9	2.431729	99.19561	0.484181	0.320211
10	2.431729	99.19560	0.484183	0.320213
Variance decomposition of DBIST
1	3907.536	14.89173	85.10827	0.000000
2	3958.518	14.65356	84.73305	0.613395
3	4007.277	16.04923	83.27992	0.670842
4	4015.353	16.37279	82.94525	0.681959
5	4015.574	16.37697	82.93850	0.684534
6	4015.730	16.37801	82.93413	0.687867
7	4015.753	16.37849	82.93319	0.688321
8	4015.755	16.37852	82.93316	0.688321
9	4015.756	16.37852	82.93315	0.688337
10	4015.756	16.37852	82.93314	0.688340
Variance decomposition of DUSD
1	0.055513	15.78019	14.56730	69.65252
2	0.059682	17.94952	15.26003	66.79045
3	0.059814	18.17990	15.27787	66.54223
4	0.060009	18.59504	15.27692	66.12804
5	0.060021	18.59939	15.29406	66.10655
6	0.060026	18.60796	15.29353	66.09851
7	0.060027	18.61097	15.29291	66.09612
8	0.060027	18.61101	15.29296	66.09603
9	0.060027	18.61101	15.29298	66.09601
10	0.060027	18.61102	15.29298	66.09600
Cholesky ordering: DGOLDPRICE DBIST DUSD