Research Article
A Forecasting Model for Feed Grain Demand Based on Combined Dynamic Model
Table 4
The comparison between the actual value and predicted value of feed grain demand under different prediction models (unit: ten thousand tons).
| | | Year | Actual value | Predicted value | Relative error | Mean relative error |
| | Combined dynamic forecasting model | 2008 | 16332.1 | 16470.9 | 0.8% | 0.46% | | 2009 | 17665.2 | 17795.3 | 0.7% | | 2010 | 17981.0 | 17928.4 | 0.2% | | 2011 | 18687.2 | 18798.5 | 0.5% | | 2012 | 19267.6 | 19243.8 | 0.1% |
| | Grey forecasting model | 2008 | 16332.1 | 17925.4 | 9.7% | 6.4% | | 2009 | 17665.2 | 18426.9 | 4.3% | | 2010 | 17981.0 | 19246.7 | 7.0% | | 2011 | 18687.2 | 19875.1 | 6.4% | | 2012 | 19267.6 | 20144.8 | 4.6% |
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