Student Enrollment and Teacher Statistics Forecasting Based on Time-Series Analysis
Table 4
Performance comparison of different forecasting models for teacher dataset.
Number of teachers
Criteria
ARIMA
ETS
TBATS
GRIDSVR
PSOSVR
WOASVR
Primary school
Public
MAPE (%)
1.65
1.67
2.75
2.12
1.46
1.39
RMSE
1835.08
1915.49
3259.28
2522.98
1769.12
1702.23
Private
MAPE (%)
3.83
8.15
10.88
6.92
3.44
2.86
RMSE
84.62
159.46
236.42
158.92
77.21
61.8
Secondary school
Public
MAPE (%)
2.50
4.27
6.54
4.60
2.25
2.04
RMSE
1427.81
2348.59
3901.30
2665.91
1340.90
1306.95
Private
MAPE (%)
5.57
6.26
13.03
12.42
4.61
3.93
RMSE
39.06
41.06
68.30
87.88
38.59
32.67
High school
Public
MAPE (%)
1.13
2.48
1.40
2.55
0.7
0.69
RMSE
474.53
1058.47
675.91
953.11
292.2
288.08
Private
MAPE (%)
3.27
4.10
4.38
3.91
3.09
3.07
RMSE
757.49
906.79
1094.97
815.19
712.99
702.78
University
Public
MAPE (%)
2.45
1.54
2.65
1.59
1.31
1.21
RMSE
931.06
600.89
999.42
715.22
527.44
471.26
Private
MAPE (%)
2.42
3.22
18.08
4.76
2.36
1.58
RMSE
1614.25
2379.39
11928.49
3482.68
1773.46
1376.06
Average
Public
MAPE (%)
1.93
2.49
3.34
2.72
1.43
1.33
RMSE
1167.12
1480.86
2208.98
1714.31
982.42
942.13
Private
MAPE (%)
3.77
5.43
11.59
7.00
3.38
2.86
RMSE
623.86
871.68
3332.05
1136.17
650.56
543.33
ARIMA, autoregressive integrated moving average; ETS, exponential smoothing; TBATS, Trigonometric Seasonal Box–Cox Transformation with ARMA residuals Trend and Seasonal Components; GRIDSVR, grid search support vector regression; PSOSVR, particle swarm optimization support vector regression; WOASVR, whale optimization algorithm support vector regression; boldface, the best values in each row.
