Research on Risk Assessment and Prediction of RMB Internationalization Based on the PCA-SA-BPNN Model

Table 1

Macroeconomic and financial indicator system.

Primary classification	Secondary classification	Tertiary classification	Correlation	Mark
Macroeconomic growth risks	Aggregate	Actual GDP growth rate	Moderate indicator	I1
		Growth rate of per capita disposable income of residents	Negative indicator	I2
		Registered urban unemployment rate	Positive indicator	I3
	Structure	Fixed asset investment growth rate	Negative indicator	I4
		Growth rate of total volume of retail sales	Negative indicator	I5
		Expected changes in RMB exchange rate	Moderate indicator	I6
Systemic risks in the financial system	Micro risk	Core capital adequacy ratio	Negative indicator	I7
		Cumulative foreign exchange exposure ratio	Positive indicator	I8
	Macro risk	Nonperforming loan ratio of the banking system	Positive indicator	I9
		CSI 300 index average price-earnings ratio	Moderate indicator	I10
		Growth rate of financial account balance	Negative indicator	I11
Inflation risk		Consumer price index (CPI)	Moderate indicator	I12
		M2/GDP	Moderate indicator	I13
Currency risk	CA	Current account balance growth rate	Negative indicator	I14
	KA	Short-term capital balance/financial account balance	Positive indicator	I15
	Sovereign debt risk	Fiscal deficit ratio	Moderate indicator	I16
		National debt burden ratio	Positive indicator	I17
		Foreign debt service ratio	Positive indicator	I18
		Short-term foreign debt/foreign exchange reserve balance	Positive indicator	I19