Research Article
A Victim-Based Framework for Telecom Fraud Analysis: A Bayesian Network Model
Table 6
Sensitivity analysis results under the characteristic node of Bayesian network.
| Bayesian nodes | State of Bayesian nodes | Estimated probability | B 1 D 1 | B 1 D 2 | B 1 D 3 | B 1 D 4 | B 2 D 1 | B 2 D 2 | B 2 D 3 | B 2 D 4 |
| (G) Cheat type | G 1 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.17 | (G) Cheat type | G 2 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 0.30 | (G) Cheat type | G 3 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.09 | (G) Cheat type | G 4 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.20 | (G) Cheat type | G 5 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.12 | (G) Cheat type | G 6 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.33 | 0.14 | 0.08 | (G) Cheat type | G 7 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.04 | (I) Call the police | I 1 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.96 | (I) Call the police | I 2 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | (J) Property loss | J 1 | 0.47 | 0.45 | 0.48 | 0.46 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.48 | (J) Property loss | J 2 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.18 | (J) Property loss | J 3 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.20 | (J) Property loss | J 4 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | (J) Property loss | J 5 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
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